Author: Onur Şentürk
Publication date: 01.10.2024
Sanctions are often seen as a powerful tool in international law to pressure states into compliance without resorting to military action. They aim to weaken a country’s economy and infrastructure to force political or military decisions. In the case of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, sanctions have been extensively applied by the West. However, their effectiveness remains a point of debate, particularly given Russia’s ability to adapt and find ways to circumvent their effects.
Effectiveness of Sanctions on Russia
The primary goal of sanctions against Russia is to cripple its economy and limit its ability to fund the war. In theory, this should weaken Russia’s military capacity and pressure the government to change course. For example, economic restrictions have targeted key sectors like energy, banking, and technology, aiming to cut off Russia’s access to global markets. Despite these measures, the expected collapse of the Russian economy has not materialized. While sanctions have caused a significant economic contraction in Russia, their impact on strategic objectives has been more limited. The sanctions contributed to a sharp decline in the value of the Russian ruble, leading to inflation and an increase in the cost of living for Russian citizens. According to Russia’s finance minister, sanctions had cost the country $40 billion by 2014, with an additional $100 billion loss due to a drop in oil prices during the same period.
Despite these economic setbacks, Russia’s ability to maintain its military operations and pursue its goals in Ukraine has not been fully compromised. The economic damage caused by sanctions has not led to the political shift that Western countries aimed for.
Additionally, sanctions have also caused significant economic damage to the EU, with total losses estimated at €100 billion as of 2015. In 2018, after further sanctions were imposed, Russia’s GDP growth suffered, with losses estimated at 0.5-1.5% in foregone GDP growth. This prompted countries like Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, and the Cyprus to question the effectiveness of sanctions. It raised important concerns about how these measures can influence state behavior while potentially harming those who impose them. Bulgarian President Boyko Borisov stated, “I don't know how Russia is affected by the sanctions, but Bulgaria is affected severely.”
Russia's Adaptation Strategies
One reason for the limited success of sanctions is Russia's ability to mitigate their effects through alternative measures. For instance, Russia has redirected its energy exports to countries like China and India, offsetting some of the losses caused by the European Union’s embargo on Russian oil. This shift has allowed Russia to maintain a flow of revenues despite the restrictions. Furthermore, Russia’s focus on domestic production has reduced its dependence on foreign imports, lessening the pressure caused by export bans.
In addition, financial measures have not fully isolated Russia from global markets. Russia has found alternative banking systems and currency swaps, particularly with non-Western nations, to continue international trade. This ability to create economic alternatives raises serious doubts about the overall effectiveness of sanctions.
Impact on the Russian Population vs. Government
Sanctions have undoubtedly worsened living conditions for the Russian population. Inflation has skyrocketed, and import shortages have created significant challenges for ordinary citizens. However, Russia’s political elite, particularly those close to Vladimir Putin, have been largely insulated from these effects. The government has redirected resources to maintain its military efforts, sacrificing domestic economic growth to continue its objectives in Ukraine.
The oligarchs, who were among the main targets of asset freezes and travel bans, have managed to move their assets to safe havens. This undermines the original goal of weakening their support for the Russian government, as their financial networks remain largely intact.
Questions on Sanctions’ Long-Term Effectiveness
The long-term effectiveness of sanctions is uncertain. While they have undoubtedly weakened Russia's economy, they have not yet forced a change in political direction. Russia's ability to maintain military operations and build new economic partnerships raises questions about whether sanctions can achieve their ultimate goal. The resilience demonstrated by Russia points to limitations in the current approach.
Moreover, sanctions often result in unintended consequences. In this case, they have led to a closer alliance between Russia and countries like China, creating new economic blocs that bypass Western sanctions. This suggests that sanctions may push countries to create alternative global alliances, weakening the international system rather than reinforcing it.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while sanctions have had a significant impact on Russia's economy, their overall effectiveness in compelling political or military change remains uncertain. Russia's ability to adapt-by forging new economic partnerships and reducing reliance on Western markets-illustrates the limitations of sanctions as a standalone tool. The resilience demonstrated by Russia, coupled with the unintended economic consequences on sanctioning nations, highlights the complexity of using sanctions to achieve long-term strategic objectives. Moving forward, it is essential for the international community to reevaluate the role of sanctions, ensuring they are employed as part of a comprehensive strategy that accounts for the targeted country’s ability to resist and adapt. Only then can sanctions contribute more effectively to international law and peacekeeping efforts.
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